# Stocks Hit Record as CPI Fuels Bets Fed Will Cut: Markets Wrap
## Bloomberg 財金文章翻譯：股市創新高，美國通膨數據推動市場押注聯準會降息 *日期：2025‑08‑12（文章由 Bloomberg 撰寫，Swissinfo 引用）* ### 原文 (English) > **Calm prevailed across Wall Street as an in‑line inflation reading bolstered speculation the Federal Reserve will have room to cut rates in September, driving stocks higher and short‑dated bond yields lower.** > All major US equity indexes climbed more than 1%, with the **S&P 500** and the **Nasdaq 100** hitting all‑time highs. The **Russell 2000** of smaller firms jumped 3%. While an initial rally in Treasuries faded, money markets priced in about a 90% chance of a Fed reduction next month. Two‑year yields, more sensitive to imminent policy moves, slid four basis points to 3.73%. The dollar fell. > > **Underlying US inflation accelerated to the strongest since the start of the year, but a tepid rise in goods prices tempered concerns about tariff‑driven pressures.** “Inflation is on the rise, but it didn’t increase as much as some people feared,” said Ellen Zentner at Morgan Stanley Wealth Management. “In the short term, markets will likely embrace these numbers because they should allow the Fed to focus on labor‑market weakness and keep a September rate cut on the table.” > > With risks to the labor market rising, the Fed would likely tolerate temporarily higher‑than‑expected inflation prints — provided that second‑round effects remain contained and price expectations stay well‑anchored, according to Marco Casiraghi at Evercore. > > **For equities, renewed bets on lower rates added to a rally driven by persistent enthusiasm over artificial intelligence and strong corporate earnings.** “Stocks can continue to move higher, and it is going to take a much larger inflation number — or other shock to the market — for a correction to commence,” said Chris Zaccarelli at Northlight Asset Management. > > The **core consumer price index (CPI)**, which excludes the often volatile food and energy categories, increased 0.3% from June, the strongest pace since the start of the year. That was in line with economists’ forecasts, as was the overall CPI on a monthly basis. > > Tiffany Wilding at Pacific Investment Management said the data — together with consumer surveys showing moderating inflation expectations and slowing labor‑market momentum — provides a reasonable backdrop for the Fed to begin rate normalization in September, even if year‑over‑year inflation remains above target. > > **EJ Antoni**, Donald Trump’s pick to lead the Bureau of Labor Statistics, suggested suspending the agency’s monthly jobs reports and publishing only quarterly numbers until issues with data collection are corrected. > > **Tom Barkin**, president of the Richmond Fed, said uncertainty over the direction of the economy is decreasing, but it’s unclear whether the central bank should concentrate more on controlling inflation or bolstering the job market. **Alexandra Wilson‑Elizondo** at Goldman Sachs Asset Management added that the Fed’s policy stance is highly data‑dependent; she believes this inflation print supports the narrative of an “insurance rate cut” in September. > > **Neil Dutta** of Renaissance Macro Research said the market reaction to the data is “surprising.” **David Russell** at TradeStation noted that while Wall Street is breathing a sigh of relief, anxiety will likely continue as tariffs work their way through supply chains. **Callie Cox** at Ritholtz Wealth Management warned investors to know what they own and pare exposure in sectors vulnerable to tariffs. > > **Greg McBride** of Bankrate cautioned that this could be the calm before the storm: a slew of tariffs taking effect could push inflation higher later in 2025. **Seema Shah** at Principal Asset Management said there is some sign of tariff pass‑through to consumer prices, but not enough to ring alarm bells. > > **With CPI out of the way, attention now shifts to the upcoming retail sales report**, which will show whether consumers remain as upbeat as company earnings calls suggest. > > In other economic news, **US tariff revenue** hit a monthly record in July, though the increase wasn’t enough to prevent the budget deficit from widening — highlighting persistent fiscal challenges. > > **Corporate highlights:** > • **Cava Group Inc.** trimmed its sales outlook after a sharp deceleration in the second quarter as diners spent less on restaurant meals. > • **AI startup Perplexity** offered to buy Google’s Chrome browser for $34.5 billion to pre‑empt potential antitrust action. > • **Gildan Activewear Inc.** is in talks to acquire **Hanesbrands Inc.**, which would be its largest acquisition ever. > • A combination of **Padcev** (Pfizer/Astellas) and **Keytruda** (Merck) extended the lives of patients with a difficult‑to‑treat bladder cancer. > • If **Novo Nordisk’s** blockbuster weight‑loss drug proves effective against Alzheimer’s disease, **Biogen’s** CEO sees an opportunity to combine therapies. > • **Insmed Inc.** surged after US regulators approved **Brinspruir** as the first treatment for a rare lung disease. > • **Smithfield Foods Inc.** raised profit guidance as its hog business rebounds despite tariffs. > • **Cargill Inc.**’s revenue fell to a four‑year low amid slumping crop prices and a shrinking US cattle herd. > • **Opendoor Technologies Inc.** rallied after investor Anthony Pompliano disclosed a stake. > • **China Evergrande Group** will be delisted from Hong Kong, signalling the end of an era for the indebted property developer. > > **Market moves:** > • **Stocks:** S&P 500 +1.1%, Nasdaq 100 +1.3%, Dow Jones Industrial Average +1.1%, MSCI World Index +1.1%, Bloomberg Magnificent 7 Total Return Index +1.2%, Russell 2000 +3%. > • **Currencies:** Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index −0.4%; euro +0.5% to $1.1675; pound +0.5% to $1.3495; yen +0.3% to ¥147.76 per dollar. > • **Cryptocurrencies:** Bitcoin +0.7% to $19,673.86; Ether +6.4% to $4,519.45. > • **Bonds:** US 10‑year Treasury yield ~4.29%; Germany’s 10‑year +5 bp to 2.74%; UK 10‑year +6 bp to 4.63%; US two‑year −4 bp to 3.73%; US 30‑year +3 bp to 4.88%. > • **Commodities:** West Texas Intermediate crude −1.2% to $63.18 per barrel; spot gold +0.2% to $3,347.79 per ounce. ### 中文翻譯 (Chinese Translation) **華爾街因通膨數據與預期一致而心態平靜，市場押注美國聯準會 9 月將有降息空間，推動美股創下新高，短期債券殖利率走低。** 所有主要美國股市指數都上漲逾 1%，其中 **標準普爾 500 指數** 和 **那斯達克 100 指數** 再創歷史高點。反映小型企業的 **羅素 2000 指數** 大漲 3%。美國公債初期上漲後回落，但貨幣市場已經反映聯準會下月降息約 0.25 個百分點的機率達九成。對即將到來的政策行動更敏感的兩年期公債殖利率下滑 4 個基點至 3.73%。美元走弱。 **美國核心通膨增速升至年初以來最強，但商品價格僅小幅上漲，緩和了關稅推高物價的擔憂。** 摩根士丹利財富管理的艾倫·曾特納（Ellen Zentner）表示：「通膨正在上升，但漲幅不如一些人擔心的那麼大。短期內市場可能會歡迎這些數據，因為它們應該能讓聯準會把焦點放在就業市場疲弱，並保持 9 月降息的可能性。」 隨著就業市場風險升高，Evercore 的馬可·卡西拉吉（Marco Casiraghi）指出，只要第二輪效應受控、通膨預期穩定，聯準會可能會容忍短暫的高於預期的通膨數據。 **股票市場方面，市場對降息的重燃押注疊加人工智慧熱潮和企業獲利強勁，推動股市續漲。** Northlight 資產管理公司投資長克里斯·扎卡雷利（Chris Zaccarelli）稱：「股市還可以繼續上漲，需要更大的通膨數據或其他市場衝擊才會出現修正。」 **核心消費者物價指數（CPI）** 剔除波動較大的食品和能源類別後，較 6 月上升 0.3%，是今年以來最快的月增速度，符合經濟學家的預期，總體 CPI 月增幅也符合預期。 太平洋投資管理公司的蒂凡尼·威爾丁（Tiffany Wilding）表示，這些數據加上消費者調查顯示通膨預期放緩、勞動市場動能減弱，為聯準會在 9 月開始調整利率提供合理背景，即便年增率仍高於目標。 **唐納德·川普提名的勞工統計局局長人選 EJ Antoni 建議暫停該機構的月度就業報告，改為按季公布，直到數據採集問題得到糾正。** **里奇蒙聯準銀行總裁湯姆·巴爾金（Tom Barkin）** 認為，經濟走向的不確定性正在下降，但目前尚不清楚央行應更專注於抑制通膨，還是支持就業市場。 **高盛資產管理的亞歷山卓拉·威爾森–埃利松多（Alexandra Wilson‑Elizondo）** 補充，聯準會的政策高度依賴數據，她認為這次通膨報告支持 9 月「保險式降息」的敘事。 **Renaissance Macro Research 的尼爾·杜塔（Neil Dutta）** 說，市場對數據的反應「令人驚訝」。TradeStation 的 **大衛·羅素（David Russell）** 指出，儘管華爾街暫時鬆了一口氣，但隨著關稅沿供應鏈傳導，焦慮可能持續。Ritholtz 財富管理的 **凱莉·考克斯（Callie Cox）** 警告長期投資者仍需審慎，留意持股並減碼易受關稅衝擊的板塊。 **Bankrate 的格雷格·麥克布萊德（Greg McBride）** 認為，這可能是暴風雨前的平靜：新一輪關稅生效後，通膨可能在 2025 年後期再度攀升。Principal 資產管理的 **西瑪·沙阿（Seema Shah）** 說，目前關稅對消費者價格傳導的跡象有限，尚不足以敲響警鐘。 **在 CPI 發布之後，焦點將轉向即將公佈的零售銷售數據，屆時可以觀察消費者信心是否如企業財報電話會議所描述的樂觀。** 其他經濟消息方面，**美國關稅收入** 在七月創下月度新高，但增長不足以阻止財政赤字擴大，凸顯聯邦財政面臨的持續挑戰。 **企業亮點：** - **Cava Group Inc.** 第二季營收增速放緩，調降全年銷售預期，顯示消費者在餐飲支出上趨於謹慎。 - **人工智慧新創 Perplexity** 提議以 345 億美元收購 Google 的 Chrome 瀏覽器，以搶在可能的反壟斷要求前布局。 - **Gildan Activewear Inc.** 正商談收購 **Hanesbrands Inc.**，規模將創公司歷史新高。 - **Padcev（輝瑞／安斯泰來）** 與 **Keytruda（默克）** 的組合療法延長了罕見膀胱癌患者的壽命。 - **若諾和諾德公司的減重藥物在阿茲海默症試驗中表現成功**，**Biogen** 執行長認為有望與自家療法聯合使用。 - **Insmed Inc.** 因其新藥 **Brinspruir** 獲美國監管機構批准，用於治療罕見肺病，股價飆升。 - **Smithfield Foods Inc.** 隨著豬肉業務回暖，上調全年獲利預測，即使面臨關稅壓力。 - **Cargill Inc.** 在農產品價格下跌和美國牛群縮減的壓力下，營收降至四年低點。 - **Opendoor Technologies Inc.** 在知名投資人安東尼·龐普利亞諾（Anthony Pompliano）宣布持股後股價攀升。 - **中國恆大集團** 將從香港退市，象徵這家負債纍纍的開發商時代落幕。 **市場行情摘要：** | 類別 | 指標及變動 | 中文解釋 | |-----------|-----------|---------| | **股票** | S&P 500 上漲 1.1%；Nasdaq 100 上漲 1.3%；道瓊工業平均指數上漲 1.1%；MSCI 世界指數上漲 1.1%；Bloomberg Magnificent 7 總收益指數上漲 1.2%；Russell 2000 上漲 3% | 美國股市受通膨數據與降息預期推動大幅走高 | | **匯率** | 美元指數跌 0.4%；歐元升 0.5% 至 1.1675 美元；英鎊升 0.5% 至 1.3495 美元；日圓升 0.3% 至 1 美元兌 147.76 日圓 | 通膨降溫與降息預期使美元走弱 | | **加密貨幣** | 比特幣升 0.7% 至 19,673.86 美元；以太幣升 6.4% 至 4,519.45 美元 | 加密貨幣延續反彈趨勢 | | **債券** | 美國 10 年期公債殖利率約 4.29%；德國 10 年期公債殖利率升 5 個基點至 2.74%；英國 10 年期公債殖利率升 6 個基點至 4.63%；美國 2 年期公債殖利率降 4 個基點至 3.73%；美國 30 年期公債殖利率升 3 個基點至 4.88% | 市場預期聯準會降息使短期利率下跌，但長端利率略升 | | **大宗商品** | 西德州中質原油跌 1.2% 至每桶 63.18 美元；現貨黃金漲 0.2% 至每盎司 3,347.79 美元 | 油價回落，金價微幅上揚 | ### 重要單字與發音 (Key Vocabulary & Pronunciation) | 英文單字/片語 (Word/Phrase) | 發音 (IPA) | 中文解釋 | |---|---|---| | **inflation** | /ɪnˈfleɪʃən/ | 通貨膨脹；物價普遍上漲 | | **Federal Reserve (Fed)** | /ˈfɛd(ə)rəl rɪˈzɜːrv/ | 美國聯邦準備理事會，負責貨幣政策的中央銀行 | | **basis point** | /ˈbeɪsɪs pɔɪnt/ | 基點，金融市場常用的百分點單位，1 bp = 0.01% | | **yield** | /jiːld/ | （債券）殖利率；收益率 | | **core consumer price index (core CPI)** | /kɔːr kənˈsuːmər praɪs ˈɪndɛks/ | 核心消費者物價指數，剔除食品和能源的 CPI | | **labor market** | /ˈleɪbər ˈmɑːrkɪt/ | 勞動市場；就業市場 | | **tariff** | /ˈtærɪf/ | 關稅 | | **rate cut** | /reɪt kʌt/ | 降息；降低利率 | | **artificial intelligence (AI)** | /ˌɑːrtɪˈfɪʃəl ɪnˈtɛlɪdʒəns/ | 人工智慧 | | **basis** | /ˈbeɪsɪs/ | 基礎；基準，通常指對比或計算的基準 | | **slump/slowdown** | /slʌmp/ or /ˈsloʊˌdaʊn/ | 衰退、低迷；減速 | | **magnificent** | /mæɡˈnɪfɪsənt/ | 宏大的、壯麗的；此處為 Bloomberg Magnificent 7 指數 | | **cryptocurrency** | /ˌkrɪptəˈkʌrənsi/ | 加密貨幣 | | **commodity** | /kəˈmɑːdəti/ | 商品；大宗商品 | | **fiscal challenges** | /ˈfɪskəl ˈtʃælɪndʒɪz/ | 財政挑戰；政府財務壓力 | | **market correction** | /ˈmɑːrkɪt kəˈrɛkʃən/ | 市場修正；指股票或資產價格回落 | ### SEO/點擊率提升建議 為了使這篇文章更容易被搜尋引擎收錄並提升讀者點擊率，部落格標題和內文特別使用了關鍵字，如「Bloomberg 財金文章」、「股市創新高」、「通膨」、「聯準會降息」等。同時在內容中加入小標題（如**原文**、**中文翻譯**、**重要單字**）方便讀者快速瀏覽，並在關鍵處提供內文摘要和重點表格。以上做法能增加文章被搜尋到的機會，並改善讀者閱讀體驗。
